Archive for September, 2007
Thank God for Dancing with the Stars! Oh…and the Housing Market!
Posted by: | CommentsGreetings from Cedar Crest, NM…..It is getting cooler……leaves are changing…AND…..
This world is stinking crazy and it is getting worse….you think? We have Brittany Spears doing everything she can to throw away here career. Then you have Ahmadinejad speaking at Columbia University….what is up with that? O.J. Simpson gets busted for armed robbery….And to top it all off….the housing market is going down the toilet. There is enough going on for us to just say "I give up" and throw in the towel….But do not do it…..do not fear….a new season of Dancing with the Stars is near! Yes…I know ….it already started but….I wanted it to rhyme.
I have been reading a lot about what is happening with the housing market and how everyone thinks it will get worse. Who really knows….but….the signs were there. Not the signs you are thinking….but historical signs called cycles. A while back I read a couple of books that gave some insight to the cycles of real estate, stocks, etc. These books were Prophecy by Robert Kiyosaki and The Next Great Bubble Boom by Harry S. Dent. Another book that foretold what is happening, at a much higher level, (Conspiracy theorist love this book)is The Creature From Jekyll Island by G. Edward Griffin.
What is interesting is that many people are crying "the sky is falling" which if you are/were a mortgage broker…this may very well feel like it. BUT as an investor…..this is a great opportunity. If you have been on my coaching calls for the last two years….you would have heard me say…."when things start going south….those that are liquid are going to have a hay day." Now…I am not saying that being liquid is the only way….but having a line of credit or "ready cash" will give investors an upper hand when opportunities arise…especially in the market we are in.
Now….for some strange reason….the downward spiral that is happening in the housing market has not hurt commercial real estate like I thought it would….is it a matter of time?….I am not sure…but my guess is yes. Lenders have tightened up on lending for commercial real estate but not to the extreme we are witnessing in the housing market.
It is basic economics – Rob style….
We have an over supply of homes on the market today….now…take the homes that are being "dumped" into the market because of foreclosures….and now you have increased supply which result in huge value drops. On top of that….put tight restrictions on money for home loans….and there goes "demand"…out the window. High supply and low demand for homes….results in sinking values. As values continue to plummet, home owners find themselves upside down on their mortgage. Add ARM (adjusted rate mortgages) loans to the mix….and now you have home owners that cannot afford their increasing mortgage payment and they cannot refinance because the value of their home has dropped below what they owe…and now have to foreclose. Now more homes are dumped into the market….and so on…and so on….
The interesting thing here is that…this will drive market rents up. Not right away…but as people lose there homes and as people find themselves unable to finance a home….people will turn to rentals…rent to own…owner financed properties, etc.
Rental properties will show lower vacancy rates…increased market rents ….and opportunities for investors to supply rental properties to a growing "rent" market will flourish.
One point I want to make clear….we are in the initial stages of the market down turn. It will get worse (my opinion) and the opportunities will get even better. This is not that time to be an "early bird" per se….but it is the time to get ready…..
Until next time……rob
Don’t Work So Hard! Are You Kidding Me?
Posted by: | Comments
Ahh….it is good to be home. Greetings from Cedar Crest, NM!
The summer has been a blur to say the least…I cannot believe I am already getting ready for winter…chopping wood….storing wood pellets….etc…believe it or not….I have to do these things….and yes…stop laughing…I do do these things.
This summer has been amazing….from speaking at the MFG commercial conference in Denver, CO…hanging out with my family in Durango, CO for vacation….the five day life changing retreat at the Quest in Hunt, TX…the Grassland Investment summit in L.A. Now…traveling to college towns to get my fix of college football…..Whew! This was a fun summer….
So….now it is back to work…working on Grassland projects….working on getting my new venture off the ground, The Ultimate Challenge, coaching, and trying not to work too much.
Anyway….
I was reading (college football news…of course) and stumbled on a quote from a football coach. But before I go into the quote…..This article stemmed from the publicity Jerry Moore received for taking his small division II school (Appalachian State) and beating then #5 Michigan in their own house.
The article talked about Moore’s philosophy on work which he learned from another coach he worked for….Coach Hatfield…..
"Too many
coaches never see their kids," Hatfield says. "One day you’re gonna be
without a job, and when Thanksgiving comes and everyone’s talking about
their memories, you’re not gonna have anything to say."
Now…you may say that is what happens to coaches in the college or professional level….and that does not apply to you….and you are probably right…but underneath the surface….there is a truth in that statement that haunts each and everyone of us…especially if we have families of our own. So….when you are about to go the "way of all the earth" will you be satisfied with the time you spent with your spouse and kids? Or will you regret not spending more time at the office? The answer is an easy one…but what are we going to do about it?
A.D.D. moment….My buddy Kevin sent me this link….it is only hilarious to those of us who were consultants in our past lives….bigtimeconsulting. I, as most consultants, was lured by the big consulting firms with money, travel and the illusion of a real life….you will only laugh if you were or if you still are a CONSULTANT! My favorite…(I am so glad I can no longer relate!).
Book Review: Red Letters: Living a Faith That Bleeds
Posted by: | Comments
Hello from the infamous Mosquito Festival in El Paso, TX.
I am visiting family and losing weight in El Paso, TX.
Now…there is the Atkins diet, the South Beach diet, etc….Well, in El Paso…they have the Mosquito diet. In West, TX….they have scientifically bred a "weight loss" mosquito. It is able to suck one gallon of blood in ten seconds. No kidding….it is not free for locals…BUT it is free for visitors! Property taxes in El Paso are the highest in the state…but the benefits of these taxes is the creation and distribution of the amazing weight loss mosquito. Yes…they breed these mosquitoes on purpose. I have lost fifty pounds in 2 hours….AND…even if you did not want to lose weight….it does not matter….these amazing mosquitoes are bigger than small dogs…. so you cannot fight them. But do not worry…these mosquitoes, by state law, are required to get tested for diseases and stuff….so you are safe…and slim.
Book Review: Red Letters: Living a Faith that Bleed
I read Davis’ first book, Fields of the Fatherless, earlier this year and it made me revisit my priorities; and it changed my perspective regarding the world I live in…the community I live in. Davis’ heart for orphans is undeniable. Davis’ vision for caring for orphans is the foundation of the Children’s Hopechest ( www.hopechest.org) organization in which Tom Davis is President.
In Red Letters, Davis pulls out all the stops and calls on the Christian church, Americans, me..and you to stop ignoring, start talking, and take action. Davis makes a convincing argument for us to stop acting like HIV/AIDS is not "our" problem.
I was shocked when I read the following statement….."Six and a half thousand Africans are still dying every day of preventable, treatable disease for lack of drugs we [Americans] can by at any drug store."
There are several stories in Red Letters that are heart breaking as well as shocking….but yet, as Davis points out, we choose to be deaf, dumb, and blind to what is happening in Africa, what is happening to the world. Even, as Bono of the famed U2 brings attention to the horror of HIV/AIDS….we continue to live in the "me" world.
Davis sums up Red Letters, in my opinion, with this statement…."This is not about charity: This is about Justice and Equality." Davis drives his point home…."We" are letting the "injustice" happen. I am not sure I agree with the usage of the word "justice," but Davis brings attention to what is happening in Africa. The question is "how numb are we?" Is it because it is surreal?
I love the statement in the book that is a Wealth Lifeline (TM) core value…"Building walls around our possessions and our lives leads to selfishness and hardened hearts." This is so true and so obvious….but the world’s view of wealth encourages this.
The Wealth Lifeline (TM) definition of "wealth" is "To love and be loved." Yet….we focus on being loved by doing all the wrong things…."buy building walls around our possessions…." When we do this…it is impossible to love….and impossible to come close to see the world through Christ’s eyes.
Tom Davis’ Red Letters will shock you into reality, if you let it…..the question is….will "we" do anything about it?
Until next time……rob