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Hello from the overpopulated metropolis of Cedar Crest, NM!  I am heading out this week to find the meaning of life.  Okay…I am exaggerating…but I am taking another hiatus.  Am I running from life?  You could say that.  Well…not really…I still plan to blog.

This has been a tough few days for me…and probably for all of us in some way.  Trying to get our minds around what just happened with the 7 billion bailout and wondering what the impact will be….and add our own personal traumas makes for a very funky time.

On the personal level, things are always funky (at least in my opinon).  We (I use “we” loosely) all deal with family issues, broken relationships, disappointments, and tragedy…it is all part of life right?   I find that anything that deals with personal relationships are always a risk….always fragile…because people change.

Where people are involved there seems to always be the risk of turmoil and pain. Think about it….business partnerships, marriage, friendships, family, and relationships in general.   When have you been hurt?  Chances are it is because of someone else.

“Okay Rob….so what is your point?”

Well….the things around us are going to get worse.  Much worse. So how will the fact that not only do we have to deal with the day-to-day issues (relationships)….but compound that with the instability of the external components or our life (i.e. the economy)?  Well…the answer may surprise you.

“I suppose that since most of our hurts come through relationships, so will our healing.” – From the book The Shack by W.M. Paul Young

WealthLifelines

I have always believed that deep relationship lead to success in all areas of life….even in tough times.  Even at the risk of getting hurt……authentic relationships with partners, teammates, clients, family, friends, etc,. will be the key factor in not only surviving the economic downturn but also the internal turmoil we all go through.

Is it that simple?  Depends on you and me.

Until next time…..rob

700 Billion $ tragedy?

These last several months have been difficult for many of us with regards to the economy and real estate (an understatment).  The problem is it is not going to get better any time soon. I am not in favor of this 700 Billion dollar bailout that is up for senate vote for several reasons, but it does not matter what I am or I am not in favor of…..the results will be devastating….and…at the same time….opportunistic.

What is to come…

Just recently, I refinanced one of my shopping centers.  I faced hurdles that I had not experienced before.  You can read more about my refinance nightmare HERE. From what I understand, I am lucky I refinanced when I did.  Lenders, especially for commercial retail, have much tighter parameters now.  The hassel of financing a retail center has gone up exponential since my personal experience.  The “word on the street” is that it will get worse. The prediction is conventional lending will dry up over the next 24 months, private money will kick in…but with terms that will make you cry.  So how does this all play into opportunity?

Opportunities?

The opportunities lie in the problems.  Many investors have mortgages with balloons coming into play….that means investors will need to refinance.  With values plummiting and credit tightening, investor will be unable to refinance…and may be pushed to sell…at higher cap rates.  This is where the opportunity is.  Now the question is….where does one get the money to take advantage of the coming opportunities?  Good questions and one I will get to next time….

Until next time…….rob

Anyway…..

The bet of week is how many banks will close (FDIC takeover) this month….I say two more by the end of the month. What say you? I think that is a safe bet. I say we see two major banks close by the end of the year.

Bill Shopoff said (and I am paraphrasing and possibly misquoting) “Investors that need to refinance their assets in the next eighteen months will be in big trouble as credit will be harder to find. Investors will have to sell at deep discounts to get from underneath properties. Cash is king!”

So….here is the lastest and greatest from the commercial real estate blog sphere…..

Which way do the numbers point now

big, big bust in the real estate market. Van has been investing in real estate for years. He’s no Donald Trump, but he has made a nice living investing in houses, apartments and small commercial prope…

CMBS Issuance Plummets To ’96 Levels: Moody’s

The issuance of bonds backed by commercial real estate loans in the first half of this year has plummeted to levels not seen since 1996, according to Moody’s, which reported on Tuesday that issuance of commercial mortgage bonds has …

Arizona Lender Mortgages Ltd. Faces Securities Inquiry

Federal and state regulators have opened investigations into the dealings of Mortgages Ltd., Arizona’s biggest private commercial real-estate lender, and the firm called Radical Bunny that lent it almost $200 million. …

Boom boom boom boom boom!

But the real bad news was embedded in the earnings release; their mortgage insurance group, which primarily writes “prime” PMI policies, has a 4.9% 60-day late rate at present, almost a double from a year ago. …

Credit crunch spreads in auto, CRE sectors

Just look at the news on the commercial real estate front that mega-brokers CB Richard Ellis Group and Jones Lang LaSalle released this week. Here’s an excerpt from a Bloomberg story, with my emphasis added: …

2008: Commercial Real Estate Financing tightens

Commercial real estate projects in Denver, Phoenix, New York and even Donnelly, Idaho, have run into similar snags, while developers in housing-bust markets like Florida and Southern California have axed smaller projects. …

Until next time….rob

In the news…..more bank closures (FDIC is hard a work)….more foreclosures….Obama and McCain (is this the best we have?…crap!) . We are in a sad state…..Oh…but wait…opportunities abound right…just ask Rudy Giuliani….oh…but don’t ask Donald Trump.

Anyway….latest and greatest regarding commercial real estate news and articles….

Centro to Sell Fund’s US Malls

Similar declines in commercial-real-estate values throughout the US are adding to the problems facing banks and other lenders who, to this point, have been hammered mostly by the housing market’s troubles. So far, the default rate among …

Foreclosure Slump Hits Commercial Real Estate – AP

“The city’s commercial sectors clocked the second-worst increase in vacancies in the past year, according to Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services, following only Orange County, Calif., where the main problem is too many …

Giuliani, Berman Enterprises Launch RE Investment Fund

Giuliani Partners, headed by former New York mayor Rudolph Giuliani, and commercial real estate owner Berman Enterprises are launching a real estate investment fund of between $500 million and $750 million focused on commercial and …

Local News reports 73 Layoffs at Trump Towers in Las Vegas. Here …

It’s not to say that buyers of residential high-rise condos have not had difficulty getting loans, all facets of real estate are facing challenge including commercial, single family homes, investment properties, vacation residences, …

PodcastTranscript: July Review for Commercial Real Estate Investors

MIKE: You know, are there other macro trends besides, you know, the emergence of overseas capital that…that you…you all are looking at, that you think are going to, you know, sort of have a major impact on real estate investing over …

Have a great weekend…and…Until next time…..rob