Below is a post from Bob Bach……I hope you enjoy…..rob

Manufacturers Rally

Analysts shuddered two months ago when the monthly Business Outlook Survey from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve plummeted unexpectedly, signaling a worrisome slowdown for manufacturers in the region. Although it covers only a corner of the U.S. – eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware – the survey provides an early clue to the more widely followed manufacturing index from the Institute for Supply Management. The dismal August reading from the Philly Fed raised fears that the economy was sliding into recession.

But the manufacturing sector is expanding again according to the October survey, released yesterday. The survey asks manufacturers a list of questions with three possible answers – increase, decrease and no change – and calculates a diffusion index for each question, which is the difference between the percentage of respondents citing an increase and those citing a decrease. The index rose from minus 17.5 in September to 8.7 in October, the largest one-month gain since the early 1980s. The index measuring activity levels expected in six months increased to its highest reading since April before the economy began to slow. The survey doesn’t point to robust growth ahead, but it is consistent with Grubb & Ellis research showing sustained demand for industrial space over the past two quarters and this quarter as well. Together with other recent indicators such as retail sales and weekly jobless claims, the Philly Fed survey suggests that the economy is fighting off a near-term recession.

Have a great weekend.

Best regards,
Bob

Robert Bach
SVP, Chief Economist
Grubb & Ellis
312.698.6754

Anyway…..

The bet of week is how many banks will close (FDIC takeover) this month….I say two more by the end of the month. What say you? I think that is a safe bet. I say we see two major banks close by the end of the year.

Bill Shopoff said (and I am paraphrasing and possibly misquoting) “Investors that need to refinance their assets in the next eighteen months will be in big trouble as credit will be harder to find. Investors will have to sell at deep discounts to get from underneath properties. Cash is king!”

So….here is the lastest and greatest from the commercial real estate blog sphere…..

Which way do the numbers point now

big, big bust in the real estate market. Van has been investing in real estate for years. He’s no Donald Trump, but he has made a nice living investing in houses, apartments and small commercial prope…

CMBS Issuance Plummets To ’96 Levels: Moody’s

The issuance of bonds backed by commercial real estate loans in the first half of this year has plummeted to levels not seen since 1996, according to Moody’s, which reported on Tuesday that issuance of commercial mortgage bonds has …

Arizona Lender Mortgages Ltd. Faces Securities Inquiry

Federal and state regulators have opened investigations into the dealings of Mortgages Ltd., Arizona’s biggest private commercial real-estate lender, and the firm called Radical Bunny that lent it almost $200 million. …

Boom boom boom boom boom!

But the real bad news was embedded in the earnings release; their mortgage insurance group, which primarily writes “prime” PMI policies, has a 4.9% 60-day late rate at present, almost a double from a year ago. …

Credit crunch spreads in auto, CRE sectors

Just look at the news on the commercial real estate front that mega-brokers CB Richard Ellis Group and Jones Lang LaSalle released this week. Here’s an excerpt from a Bloomberg story, with my emphasis added: …

2008: Commercial Real Estate Financing tightens

Commercial real estate projects in Denver, Phoenix, New York and even Donnelly, Idaho, have run into similar snags, while developers in housing-bust markets like Florida and Southern California have axed smaller projects. …

Until next time….rob

In the news…..more bank closures (FDIC is hard a work)….more foreclosures….Obama and McCain (is this the best we have?…crap!) . We are in a sad state…..Oh…but wait…opportunities abound right…just ask Rudy Giuliani….oh…but don’t ask Donald Trump.

Anyway….latest and greatest regarding commercial real estate news and articles….

Centro to Sell Fund’s US Malls

Similar declines in commercial-real-estate values throughout the US are adding to the problems facing banks and other lenders who, to this point, have been hammered mostly by the housing market’s troubles. So far, the default rate among …

Foreclosure Slump Hits Commercial Real Estate – AP

“The city’s commercial sectors clocked the second-worst increase in vacancies in the past year, according to Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services, following only Orange County, Calif., where the main problem is too many …

Giuliani, Berman Enterprises Launch RE Investment Fund

Giuliani Partners, headed by former New York mayor Rudolph Giuliani, and commercial real estate owner Berman Enterprises are launching a real estate investment fund of between $500 million and $750 million focused on commercial and …

Local News reports 73 Layoffs at Trump Towers in Las Vegas. Here …

It’s not to say that buyers of residential high-rise condos have not had difficulty getting loans, all facets of real estate are facing challenge including commercial, single family homes, investment properties, vacation residences, …

PodcastTranscript: July Review for Commercial Real Estate Investors

MIKE: You know, are there other macro trends besides, you know, the emergence of overseas capital that…that you…you all are looking at, that you think are going to, you know, sort of have a major impact on real estate investing over …

Have a great weekend…and…Until next time…..rob

BUT….this blew my mind (even though speculation has been brewing for months). One of the headlines of the New York Post “U.S. Considers Takeover of Two Mortgage Giants.” Holy smokes!

Anyway….Commercial real estate news and articles in the blog sphere:

The Ups and Downs of Commercial Real Estate

Video on commercial real estate outlook…a survey

Poll finds commercial real estate pros pessimistic about economy … Dallas Morning News – Dallas,TX,USA So why are so many real estate players in a new poll sounding a bit glum? Almost 60 percent of nationwide real estate pros recently surveyed by accounting …

Real estate problems not exclusive to Michigan MLive.com – MI,USA I thought all my commercial real estate friends in Ann Arbor and elsewhere would enjoy this. While I was in Chicago last weekend, I snapped a photo of this …

The Almost Daily 2¢ – Barney Blunders, Fannie Freddie Flounders! Regular readers may remember that back in March I had an interesting email exchange with Massachusetts Representative and House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank regarding the legislation allowing the government sponsored enterprises (GSE) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to increase substantially their conforming loan limit.

2008 Commercial Real Estate Forcast

Commercial Real Estate. June 20th, 2008. Midyear 2008. Retail property fundamentals are softening due to the prolonged housing downturn and slowing economy; however,. performance variation by market and type of retail has widened …

Inland Takes $100M Interest in Wakefield

Seeking capital to pursue healthcare real estate opportunities, NorthStar Realty Finance Corp. said today its healthcare real estate venture, Wakefield Capital LLC, sold $100 million in convertible preferred equity interest to Inland …

Foreign Investors Pile Up More Pieces of Americana

The government of Abu Dhabi bought a 90 percent stake in the landmark building Tuesday for $800 million from a German real estate fund managed by Prudential Real Estate Investors. The 1046-foot (319-meter) tower was designed by William …

Until next time….rob

I am back from Durango, CO where I spent the week with my youth group. We joined a thousand other young adults at Fort Lewis College @ the CIY MOVE conference. It was amazing.

Anyway while I was at the conference, I decided to play Ultimate Frisbee with the young adults. The result? A ruptured achillies tendon. At first I just though someone kicked me in the calf…and kicked me hard. Well…it did not take long for my lower leg to swell up and bruise up. Funny thing is I looked up on the web, there was a medical site that said “Ruptured achillies tendon is common with middle age weekend warriors.” Wow….comment kinda hurt….because it is true.

Anyway…..

A lot…and I mean a lot is happening in the economy…but I do think the media is exaggerating the reality of what is really happening. For instance, there are a handful of cities that are bucking the trend and home values are steadily increasing. You really do not hear about cities like Mobile, Alabama, El Paso, TX, San Antonio, TX, or Raleigh, NC to name a few. In anycase…there is a lot of news….enjoy….

Commercial Real Estate Articles and News:
Commercial Loan Crisis: A Primer

Some of the points discussed:. What the FDIC considers a commercial loan; Commercial real estate exposure for banks; Which commercial loans will be most problematic; Not all commercial loands are performing badly.

Retail Commercial Real Estate Market Softening

Tags : bob, commercial, corporate, estate, industrial, information, investing, investment, investor, lease, marcus, market, millichap, network, networking, news, office, professional, real, retail, sale, sibdu, social, video, woods.

Sub-Prime Losses and Housing Bubble Could Cost $1 Trillion…

The list is long: Bank of America, Wachovia (nyse: WB – news – people ) and others whose loan portfolios are primarily home mortgages and commercial real estate. They say that every business cycle is different but this is as nonsensical …

CRE News – Indymac another casualty

Bad news in my world again today. IndyMac created a commercial division to become more diversified. However, it was too little, too late for them. It wasn’t entirely unexpected but the way it was handle certainly was. …

REITs Bruised by Credit Crisis

The Dow Jones Equity All REIT Total Return index, which tracks 118 equity real-estate investment trusts, declined 4.9% in the second quarter compared with a gain of 1.4% in the first quarter. REITs, which outperformed the Standard …

Changing the Real Estate Holding Mix

I have been a real estate investor for 24 years. I started with single family homes and remained focused there for most of that time. Sure, there was the occaisonal larger deal, but SFH was where I was comfortable. About five years ago, …

Ticking Time Bomb?: Fannie Mae Monthly Summary May 2008

It’sa real shame since these enterprises seemed to be doing so well recently, short of that stint in 2004 where Fannie Mae executives fleeced the company of over $100 million in fraudulent bonuses and the like… …

Economy looks in distress

Economic data this week were slim and predictable: Consumer confidence fell again, and rebate checks plumped May spending and income, but gave no durable, corner-turning boost. The “personal consumption expenditure deflator” in the …

Gas prices fuel interest in city living

Courtesy of the Living in Cleveland CenterThe cover of a new neighborhood guide released by the Living in Cleveland Center. High gas prices and a tough economy are leading some Northest Ohioans to think about living in Cleveland, …

Until next time……rob