Archive for economic meltdown
Commercial Real Estate Investing: The Coming Depression?
Posted by: | CommentsGreetings from Cedar Crest, NM….still cold but no snow….what a shame.
Where is the good news? Where? There isn’t any!
All the talk of the “big three” automakers waiting for a bailout is unreal. I read that if just one of the big three were to go under….we would enter into a depression. Are you serious?….or is that just “hard talk” from an emotional economist?
Well, Emily reminded me of a blog I wrote back in February of this year. Actually…I did not write it….Glenn Beck did. Glenn (I can call him by his first name since we will be friends someday) wrote about Nouriel Roubini’s outlook on the economy. You can read the post HERE. Per Roubini, we are closer to a meltdown than most people think.
To make things a little more interesting (for a lack of a better word)…I got an invitation email to attend a webinar hosted by Harry S. Dent titled The Coming Depression – Investment Strategies in 2009 and Beyond. The email states “During the next coming depression…..” WOW!
So what to make of all this?
Well…..better to be prepared than sorry? Then how does one prepare? Is this Y2K all over again? You remember Y2K….not even a fizzle.
Enjoy these video? Well…enjoy is the wrong word…..
Roubini: Worst yet to come
CNN Your Money: Talks of Great Depression Coming
Until next time…..rob
Other Post from around the web:
Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis: Prepare For Depression … – Deflation has already set in and it’s now realistic to start talking about another “D” word, this one being depression. Before we can use a word, we must define it. For the sake of argument, let’s define depression as unemployment of …
CNN on post-Great Depression recessions suffered by US (Thomas … – CNN on post-Great Depression recessions suffered by US. Interesting bit: Average US recession (11 since 1930s) lasts less than a year (or 6-12 months) except for two (early 1970s and early 1980s) that were global ones, in addition. …
America’s Second Great Depression Has Started :: The Market Oracle … – America’s Second Great Depression Has Started :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting Free Website.
TruthNews.us » Blog Archive » Corporate Debt Protection Costs … – The cost of protecting corporate debt from default jumped to a record in Europe and neared a high in the U.S. amid concern that the global recession will sink into a depression. Credit-default swaps on a benchmark index tied to below- …
Cramer: Depression Comparisons are ‘Scare Tactics’ | NewsBusters.org – Recent contractions in gross domestic product are also far from the huge drops seen during the Great Depression. And current stock market volatility doesn’t compare to the 90 percent decline during the Depression. …
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The Commercial Real Estate Blog Sphere – News And Articles #6
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Greetings from somewhere….over the pacific ocean. Maui Mastermind is now but a great memory. Maui
Mastermind is one of few events that changed my life. It got me to think bigger…..and smarter (depends on who you ask.) My first Maui Mastermind was in 2003……which was the biggest paradigm shift for me…..well worth the price of admission. Now….some of the faces have changed….but the advisors (i.e., Bill Shopoff, David Finkel, Elizabeth Kana, Marc Owings, David Terry, and on and on) are better than ever.
Anyway…..
The bet of week is how many banks will close (FDIC takeover) this month….I say two more by the end of the month. What say you? I think that is a safe bet. I say we see two major banks close by the end of the year.
Bill Shopoff said (and I am paraphrasing and possibly misquoting) “Investors that need to refinance their assets in the next eighteen months will be in big trouble as credit will be harder to find. Investors will have to sell at deep discounts to get from underneath properties. Cash is king!”
So….here is the lastest and greatest from the commercial real estate blog sphere…..
Which way do the numbers point now
big, big bust in the real estate market. Van has been investing in real estate for years. He’s no Donald Trump, but he has made a nice living investing in houses, apartments and small commercial prope…
CMBS Issuance Plummets To ’96 Levels: Moody’s
The issuance of bonds backed by commercial real estate loans in the first half of this year has plummeted to levels not seen since 1996, according to Moody’s, which reported on Tuesday that issuance of commercial mortgage bonds has …
Arizona Lender Mortgages Ltd. Faces Securities Inquiry
Federal and state regulators have opened investigations into the dealings of Mortgages Ltd., Arizona’s biggest private commercial real-estate lender, and the firm called Radical Bunny that lent it almost $200 million. …
But the real bad news was embedded in the earnings release; their mortgage insurance group, which primarily writes “prime” PMI policies, has a 4.9% 60-day late rate at present, almost a double from a year ago. …
Credit crunch spreads in auto, CRE sectors
Just look at the news on the commercial real estate front that mega-brokers CB Richard Ellis Group and Jones Lang LaSalle released this week. Here’s an excerpt from a Bloomberg story, with my emphasis added: …
2008: Commercial Real Estate Financing tightens
Commercial real estate projects in Denver, Phoenix, New York and even Donnelly, Idaho, have run into similar snags, while developers in housing-bust markets like Florida and Southern California have axed smaller projects. …
Until next time….rob
Commercial Real Estate Articles And News # 3
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Greetings from the 345th wonder of the world….Cedar Crest, NM
I am back from Durango, CO where I spent the week with my youth group. We joined a thousand other young adults at Fort Lewis College @ the CIY MOVE conference. It was amazing.
Anyway while I was at the conference, I decided to play Ultimate Frisbee with the young adults. The result? A ruptured achillies tendon. At first I just though someone kicked me in the calf…and kicked me hard. Well…it did not take long for my lower leg to swell up and bruise up. Funny thing is I looked up on the web, there was a medical site that said “Ruptured achillies tendon is common with middle age weekend warriors.” Wow….comment kinda hurt….because it is true.
Anyway…..
A lot…and I mean a lot is happening in the economy…but I do think the media is exaggerating the reality of what is really happening. For instance, there are a handful of cities that are bucking the trend and home values are steadily increasing. You really do not hear about cities like Mobile, Alabama, El Paso, TX, San Antonio, TX, or Raleigh, NC to name a few. In anycase…there is a lot of news….enjoy….
Commercial Real Estate Articles and News:
Commercial Loan Crisis: A Primer
Some of the points discussed:. What the FDIC considers a commercial loan; Commercial real estate exposure for banks; Which commercial loans will be most problematic; Not all commercial loands are performing badly.
Retail Commercial Real Estate Market Softening
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Sub-Prime Losses and Housing Bubble Could Cost $1 Trillion…
The list is long: Bank of America, Wachovia (nyse: WB – news – people ) and others whose loan portfolios are primarily home mortgages and commercial real estate. They say that every business cycle is different but this is as nonsensical …
CRE News – Indymac another casualty
Bad news in my world again today. IndyMac created a commercial division to become more diversified. However, it was too little, too late for them. It wasn’t entirely unexpected but the way it was handle certainly was. …
REITs Bruised by Credit Crisis
The Dow Jones Equity All REIT Total Return index, which tracks 118 equity real-estate investment trusts, declined 4.9% in the second quarter compared with a gain of 1.4% in the first quarter. REITs, which outperformed the Standard …
Changing the Real Estate Holding Mix
I have been a real estate investor for 24 years. I started with single family homes and remained focused there for most of that time. Sure, there was the occaisonal larger deal, but SFH was where I was comfortable. About five years ago, …
Ticking Time Bomb?: Fannie Mae Monthly Summary May 2008
It’sa real shame since these enterprises seemed to be doing so well recently, short of that stint in 2004 where Fannie Mae executives fleeced the company of over $100 million in fraudulent bonuses and the like… …
Economic data this week were slim and predictable: Consumer confidence fell again, and rebate checks plumped May spending and income, but gave no durable, corner-turning boost. The “personal consumption expenditure deflator” in the …
Gas prices fuel interest in city living
Courtesy of the Living in Cleveland CenterThe cover of a new neighborhood guide released by the Living in Cleveland Center. High gas prices and a tough economy are leading some Northest Ohioans to think about living in Cleveland, …
Until next time……rob