Archive for great depression
The Führer Principle – Brandon Saylor
Posted by: | CommentsGreetings from Albuquerque, NM….
Below is an article from my friend Brandon…..again. He writes such great stuff….that….for obvious reason….I like to post it! Enjoy…until next time….rob
The Führer Principle
In grade school, I remember asking myself how could the German people elect someone as evil as Adolf Hitler. How could they allow such a monster to become supreme chancellor? Understanding how it happened is very important, mainly so it does not happened again. The significance of this newsletter will only make sense by looking through the lens of today’s events. Many of the main ingredients that led to the Nazi take over are present today. Recognizing the circumstances is the solution to history not repeating itself.
The beginning of the end for the Weimar Republic began with the Treaty of Versailles in 1919. For the German people, the treaty was humiliating. The treaty placed heavy restrictions on Germany much of which were embarrassing for the once proud nation. The German army was reduced to one hundred thousand solders and arms for citizens became non-existent. The initial German economic fatalities due to the treaty were shocking. Germany’s territories vanished overnight. Germany lost approximately 13.5% of its total land mass, 13% of its industrial productivity, and more than 10% of its population. Additionally, the loss of important mining regions such as the Saar and Upper Silesia resulted in a loss of some 74% of iron ore and approximately 25% of its coal reserves. Historians and economists have long deliberated the real effects of the treaty but one thing is for certain it lead to “deprivations that shattered their faith in the democratic process and left them cynical and alienated.” –G.A. Craig
Germany’s economic situation never improved. To keep up with the stringent demands of the treaty, the Weimar Republic faced hyperinflation never seen before in history. The German Mark ratio to the U.S. dollar was 4 to 1 near the end of the WWI. It was 8 to 1 in 1919, 250 to 1 in 1921, and 2000 to 1 in 1923. The Weimar government, at various times, faced food shortages, massive unemployment, and an unprecedented economic depression. By 1932, some 6 million Germans were unemployed. Millions of them were homeless living on the streets relying on soup kitchens and charity organizations. “Men standing hopelessly on street corners of every industrial town in Germany; houses without food or warmth; young people without the chance of a job. All these things explain the bitterness which burned in the minds of millions of ordinary Germans.”
The escalation of political violence in Weimar Germany must certainly be factored in as a contributory reason for the country’s political volatility. Beginning with the emergence of the Freikorps, which later became the brutal SS, formed units immediately after the declaration of the Republic. The tendency toward violence became entrenched in Weimar politics after the 1919 assassinations of Karl Liebknecht and Rosa Luxemburg. Large protests and riots became an all too familiar sight for the citizens of Germany.
Among the widespread disarray and frustration, the basic notion of a government was being questioned. What type of government could lead and govern the will of the people? This ongoing debate became known as the Führer Principle. The Führer Principle is established on the acknowledgment that the true will of the people cannot be revealed through plebiscites but that the will of the people in its natural and virtuous state can only be articulated through the Führer. Therefore, a difference must be drawn between the theoretical will of the people in a parliamentary democracy, which simply echoes the discord of diverse social perspectives, and the true will of the people in the Führer-state. Hitler took the Führer Principle and redefined it as himself…he was the Führer. Redefining the Führer was nothing short of audacious. It was captivating and alluring to many who were famished for change.
Many of the governing members in the Reichstag (congress) struggled to tame and communicate effectively to the youth of Germany. The Reichstag members continually doubted the youth’s ability to recognize a just government. Keep in mind most of Germany’s youth grew up in this chaotic state. Their view towards the government was distorted to say the least. The Weimar Republic only lasted 14 years but before that Germany spent the last 5 years in battle. A huge cohort of individuals only knew suffering and turmoil. Disconnect between the defenders of the former Kaiser rule and much more progressive governments were mounting daily. During the short lived Weimar Republic, Communism, Socialism, and a whirl of leaders/dictators were fighting for control.
Hitler knew very well that the youth’s mind were especially susceptible. This is exactly why he began with them. In the beginning, his messages were engineered for the youth. He knew the youth would be prone to messages of change and optimism. Joseph Goebbels (Hitler’s Minister of Propaganda) used propaganda methods to manipulate the masses. It was this desolate desire for change that gave Hitler his power.
The straw that broke the camels back for the Weimar Republic was the American Great Depression. The stock market crash of 1929 sent shock waves across Europe. The crash knocked Germany into the gallows. It was Hitler’s time to move. On September 14th, 1930, the Reichstag elections were held. The results were shocking. The Nazis had entered the register as the ninth and smallest of Germany’s political parties. The German people voted. The Nazis controlled 107 seats after that election. In November 1932, Hitler was defeated in the presidential election to WWI veteran Paul von Hindenburg. He received 42% of the votes. Hitler decided to enter a coalition government as chancellor in January 1933. Upon the death of Hindenburg in August 1934, Hitler become successor by popular vote.
Today, we are suffering the ongoing effects of the worst recession since the Great Depression. We are facing a global economic contraction. Greece is on the verge of insolvency and the US is limping along. Worldwide riots and protests have plagued the streets invoking for revolution. Frustration levels are swelling. This is the formula for calamity. However, it begins with the youth. Vladimir Lenin famously referred to youth uprisings as “useful idiots”. With the exception of the American Revolution, most revolutions in history conclude with a radical party seizing opportunity out of the political madness. People such as Hitler, Mao, and Lenin took advantage of a chaotic situation. I do not foresee a Weimar revolution of this magnitude anytime in the near future. Nevertheless, if we are not careful and mindful of the situation it becomes an unquestionable possibility. Education and knowledge of the truth is the only thing that will prevent history from repeating itself.
Have a great weekend my friends!
Brandon Saylor
-Associate
The Commercial Real Estate Blog-O-Sphere News #11 – The Future
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Greetings from the squirrel capital of the world….Cedar Crest, NM!
If you are watching the news, you are aware that the “year in review” news segment is almost in rerun mode. Well, I thought I would show you a few videos from the blog-o-sphere of what the prognosticators are saying about the near future. And….of course commercial real estate news. One thing is for sure….if there was a time to buy….it is in the very very near future. Will you find a cave or figure out how to take advantage of the commercial real estate bust?
Video’s from prognosticators (credible and not-so-credible):
Ron Paul on the Economic Collapse!
Peter Schiff on Impending Economic Collapse
Economic Collapse of 2009 – Greater than Great Depression of 1929
- Robert: I believe that 2009 will undoubtedly set a mark in time as the year that established the new paradigm for commercial real estate investing and real estate services. [ More Eyeball '09 HERE | Eyeball '08 | '07 ] …
Baby Boomers Will Drive Real Estate Growth : Smarter Finances …
- The size of the group gives it vast influence over American politics, popular cultural, and of course, real estate. To evaluate the influence of the baby boomers on the future of real estate, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) …
Your 2009 Real Estate Outlook
- The residential real estate business started slowing in 2006, and then really fell out of bed in 2007. But commercial real estate continued chugging along for a while. That’s all changing — and 2009 will likely be even worse for landlords and investors in warehouse, office, … It will make it so you can invest in rental property, or strip malls, or an office building and generate attractive returns again, without relying on pie-in-the-sky projections about future growth. …
The Coming Commercial Real Estate Implosion | The BizJournal at …
- Anyone concerned about the short term future of commercial real estate would do well to read the full report, but I’ll go ahead a spoil the punchline:. In short, tougher times appear to lie ahead. Worsening macroeconomic conditions …
Real Estate Investmenting …
- It is not a secret that today real estate is in a rather bad shape. One of the main reasons behind this is the problem of foreclosure. Let’s remind that.
Will 2009 be “it” — the year when things finally start turning …
- Investors are going to focus once again on the wounded real estate market. And millions of homeowners and commercial property owners are going to ask that all-important question: Will 2009 be “it” — the year when things finally start turning around? … It will make it so you can invest in rental property, or strip malls, or an office building and generate attractive returns again, without relying on pie-in-the-sky projections about future growth. …
Buchanan Street’s Brunswick Looks Back at ’08, Eyes Future
- Brunswick: It’s not particularly troubling, as I believe those monies can be better utilized within our economy than within the commercial real estate sector. The distress in commercial real estate is not currently …
Until next time…..rob
Commercial Real Estate Investing: The Coming Depression?
Posted by: | CommentsGreetings from Cedar Crest, NM….still cold but no snow….what a shame.
Where is the good news? Where? There isn’t any!
All the talk of the “big three” automakers waiting for a bailout is unreal. I read that if just one of the big three were to go under….we would enter into a depression. Are you serious?….or is that just “hard talk” from an emotional economist?
Well, Emily reminded me of a blog I wrote back in February of this year. Actually…I did not write it….Glenn Beck did. Glenn (I can call him by his first name since we will be friends someday) wrote about Nouriel Roubini’s outlook on the economy. You can read the post HERE. Per Roubini, we are closer to a meltdown than most people think.
To make things a little more interesting (for a lack of a better word)…I got an invitation email to attend a webinar hosted by Harry S. Dent titled The Coming Depression – Investment Strategies in 2009 and Beyond. The email states “During the next coming depression…..” WOW!
So what to make of all this?
Well…..better to be prepared than sorry? Then how does one prepare? Is this Y2K all over again? You remember Y2K….not even a fizzle.
Enjoy these video? Well…enjoy is the wrong word…..
Roubini: Worst yet to come
CNN Your Money: Talks of Great Depression Coming
Until next time…..rob
Other Post from around the web:
Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis: Prepare For Depression … – Deflation has already set in and it’s now realistic to start talking about another “D” word, this one being depression. Before we can use a word, we must define it. For the sake of argument, let’s define depression as unemployment of …
CNN on post-Great Depression recessions suffered by US (Thomas … – CNN on post-Great Depression recessions suffered by US. Interesting bit: Average US recession (11 since 1930s) lasts less than a year (or 6-12 months) except for two (early 1970s and early 1980s) that were global ones, in addition. …
America’s Second Great Depression Has Started :: The Market Oracle … – America’s Second Great Depression Has Started :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting Free Website.
TruthNews.us » Blog Archive » Corporate Debt Protection Costs … – The cost of protecting corporate debt from default jumped to a record in Europe and neared a high in the U.S. amid concern that the global recession will sink into a depression. Credit-default swaps on a benchmark index tied to below- …
Cramer: Depression Comparisons are ‘Scare Tactics’ | NewsBusters.org – Recent contractions in gross domestic product are also far from the huge drops seen during the Great Depression. And current stock market volatility doesn’t compare to the 90 percent decline during the Depression. …
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