Below is a post from Bob Bach……I hope you enjoy…..rob

Manufacturers Rally

Analysts shuddered two months ago when the monthly Business Outlook Survey from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve plummeted unexpectedly, signaling a worrisome slowdown for manufacturers in the region. Although it covers only a corner of the U.S. – eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware – the survey provides an early clue to the more widely followed manufacturing index from the Institute for Supply Management. The dismal August reading from the Philly Fed raised fears that the economy was sliding into recession.

But the manufacturing sector is expanding again according to the October survey, released yesterday. The survey asks manufacturers a list of questions with three possible answers – increase, decrease and no change – and calculates a diffusion index for each question, which is the difference between the percentage of respondents citing an increase and those citing a decrease. The index rose from minus 17.5 in September to 8.7 in October, the largest one-month gain since the early 1980s. The index measuring activity levels expected in six months increased to its highest reading since April before the economy began to slow. The survey doesn’t point to robust growth ahead, but it is consistent with Grubb & Ellis research showing sustained demand for industrial space over the past two quarters and this quarter as well. Together with other recent indicators such as retail sales and weekly jobless claims, the Philly Fed survey suggests that the economy is fighting off a near-term recession.

Have a great weekend.

Best regards,
Bob

Robert Bach
SVP, Chief Economist
Grubb & Ellis
312.698.6754

I know it has been a while but I truly want to get back into the swing of things and keep this blog going.  Once recognized as one of the top ten commercial real estate investing blogs in the country….now….just another blog…maybe worse.  I hope to fix that in the next coming months.  So….I would like to kick things off …..again….

I would like to introduce you to my buddy and colleague, Brandon Saylor….he’s a writer and a good one at that…..check out his latest below.  Brandon is sometimes controversial but….I agree with most of what he says…if not all.  With Brandon’s permission….I will be posting Brandon’s writings on this blog.

Brandon Saylor

Anatomy of an Economic Bubble

This recession has taught me a lifetime worth of knowledge. Observing the catastrophic meltdown that occurred in 2008 seared lessons within me. One of these fundamental lessons is the understanding of economic cycles and the red flags of danger. In short, the economic meltdown of 2008 began with the bubble bursting of credit markets affecting everything from real estate to the stock market. It is paramount to understand the anatomy of a bubble and the natural economic cycles that ebb and flow through time. Below are the main stages of a bubble.

There are no time limits between each stage. The “stealth phase” is the 1st phase in which the asset is adhering to its core fundamentals. Subsequently, the “awareness phase” is when the value of the asset begins to rise above its fundamental value. In the third phase, the asset value explodes as the media begins to remark about its escalating value. A swelling number of investors eulogize the merits of the asset as they merge with the cause.

In the final phase, the value of the asset begins to dissipate. Many naive investors still believe it will continue to increase in value. The daunting reality sets in that the asset is overpriced and everyone tries to get out. Unfortunately, many are left behind as the value of the asset plummets to its long term fundamental value.

Conceivably, the most legendary and oldest, well-documented instance of a speculative bubble is the “tulipmania” that hit 17th century Holland like a bomb. The tulip became an instant hit upon its introduction to Western Europe in the mid 16th century. Dutch collectors developed a hierarchy of tulip varieties based upon their species and coloring. Because it was impossible to determine which variation would bloom from a particular bulb, the tulip grew into an asset of speculation. Before the 1630s, the bulbs were popular among the extreme wealthy and were flaunted to exhibit class. By the mid 1630s, the obsession caught on with the middle class and lower socioeconomic classes. The increased demand caused the price of the bulbs toescalate dramatically.

The market reached its pinnacle in late 1636 and early 1637, after the bulbs had been seeded to blossom the following spring. People mortgaged their homes and traded in their savings in order to buy rare and exotic bulbs to resale at higher prices.

In February 1637, as winter turned to spring the bulbs were close to flowering, consumer confidence evaporated and the market suddenly crashed. As the price collapsed, nobody would buy the bulbs, even though they offered them at one quarter of the sums they had paid for them. The tulip bubble burst is alluded to in the recent sequel of Wall Street 2.

Economic bubbles are a reality of any capitalistic monetary system. The point of this email is to recognize the red flags before it is too late. The first red flag is to recognize the larger macroeconomic forces that dictate the market. It is now understood the catalyst for any bubble begins with easy money. The Austrian School of Economics believes “asset bubbles occur when there is an extended period of low interest rates coupled with an expansion of credit. The availability of cheap money encourages speculation in one or more asset classes causing the price to escalate rapidly exceeding their underlying fundamental value.” The availability of cheap money promotes an over abundance of growth. Consequently, a bubble ensues. Bubbles can be an excellent way to make money if you get in at some stage in the “awareness phase” and get out before you reach the inevitable landslide. The key to success is to not be trapped when the eruption begins.

What is the next bubble? In the past decade, we have had the escalation and crash of the dotcoms, the oil bubble and the monstrous credit bubble following the oil crash. Is the stock market the next big bubble? The Dow Jones industrial average is now trading at 86% of its all time high of 14,164.53. Is it gold? Gold is constantly breaking record prices for the value of a troy ounce of gold. Could it be the bond market? Another energy bubble? At this point, it is hard to determine which market/asset is going to be the next bubble. However, armed with the knowledge of warning signs it will be easier to decipher the craze when an asset is going gangbusters.

Ultimately, there are two things about economic bubbles I want to leave with you today. Greed intensifies the problem and it is the definitive drive to astronomical prices. As they say, “Avarice has ruined more souls than extravagance.” And ask yourself does this type of speculative behavior make sense?  Does gold trading at $1,455/oz make sense? Is the stock market value reflective of the health of the economy? Does $107/ barrel of oil make sense? If common sense does not fit the reality of the time then maybe it is a good time to get out before it is too late.

Have a great weekend my friends!

-Brandon Saylor

Good stuff huh?

If you want to catch Brandon’s future writings as well as past writings….subscribe at the top right corner….

Until next time….rob

Sitting in the audience not too long ago, I heard a speaker/guru that I respected very much say the stupidest thing.  I heard him say “….investing in the stock market is a dumb thing to do because there is so much risk.”  Granted he was selling his “silver bullet” program but….what a dumb thing to say.  I know so many people that have done so well in the stock market in good times and in bad that I know the stock market is a great place to invest…..I say what with caution…keep reading.

I have also heard people say that real estate is a bad investment.  When we all know people that have done well in real estate as well…whether the market is good or bad….again…I say that with caution….keep reading.

Of course there are horror stories for any investment vehicle…whether real etate, stocks, businesses, etc.  BUT….there is one very clear statement that makes all the sense in the world in whatever investment vehicle you are investing in:

“Know what the hell you are doing…understand what it is that you investing in.” – me

In other words, have a good understanding of how your investment vehicle works.  If you don’t understand it, don’t do it unless you are willing to lose.  Then…if you lose….don’t #$%@!$ about it.

What I am saying is a knowledgeable investor will understand the risk, do what he or she can to mitigate it and roll with the punches of the investment.  A savvy investor will do all this while taking advantage of the cycles that ALL INVESTMENTS go through.

Savvy investors know that losing money is the cost of doing business….but the key is making more than you lose.  The way great investors do this is by spending the time educating themselves, seeking advice from successful investors and professionals, and mitigating risk.

Investing with little or no knowledge of what you are doing is what I call “Vegas Style Investing.”

So…then next time someone on stage or TV tells you their opinion on investing….take it with a grain of salt.  Remember there are success stories with almost every type of investment vehicle as well as horror stories.  The key is to understand the investment and know what the heck you are doing.

Until next time…..rob

Today’s post is actually an interview I did with my friend Steve Maxwell from DealAnalysisGuru.com.  In the interview, Steve and I discuss the process of getting to a purchase agreement on a commercial deal.  In other words, explaining the process of getting a commercial real estate deal locked up under  a purchase contract.

In the interview, I answer questions regarding LOIs (Letter Of Intents) and purchase agreements.  The call is broken up into three segments.  The interview was conducted over the phonse so, the call gets dropped a couple times.  But none-the-less….there is some good information.  The links to the calls are provided below.

P.S.  Make sure you check out Steve’s site www.DealAnalysisGuru.com

Interview links on The Process of How to Get a Deal Under Contract:

1. Interview part 1
2. Interview part 2
3. Interview part 3

Until next time……rob

Anyways….

One of the biggest lessons I have learned in my limited time in real estate investing is that the people to learn from are those with real experience.  As with many of you, I started with books and “boot camps”….and in some cases that works well with residential investing.  But with commercial real estate, the stakes are much bigger and the learning curve is much steeper.  But the “gurus” don’t tell you that.

My biggest mistake was I did not research the people I was learning from.  Learning how to invest from a “guru” that had limited experience with commercial real estate was a big mistake.  Even more of a mistake was learning from gurus who were using other people’s experiences and successes as their own to sell their program.  Yes…this happens a lot more than we think.

Luckily, I was so hardheaded and ignorant, that I took the information with confidence and pushed through.  Sometimes you can push so hard that you take down a wall.  Fortunately, at the time, it was the right wall.  But, with that said, there were a lot of mistakes that only guidance from experience professionals could have helped me avoid.

Now…what I am NOT saying is…”it takes years of experience to start investing in commercial real estate.”  That is not what I am saying at all.  But….what it does take is the correct education and guidance.  Honestly….this is the best way and your success can be realized much faster than you think or what others tell you.

So…you are probably expecting a sales pitch here….but on the contrary, here are some tips on how to get started on your own….that is right…. how to get started without a flashy package and a smooth talking guru….

Rob’s thoughts are ideas on getting started in commercial real estate:

1)  Keep your money for now. Thinking about spending 2K, 5K, 10K on a good looking”how to invest in ……” package where the marketing says “20K in value…but for a limited time….only $4,999.00 you can have the plan to wealth…and my personal phone number.”  When you hear that….tighten up…have a cup of joe….and remember my words here…KEEP YOUR MONEY.

2) Buy a good book on commercial real estate. Don’t buy a book from a “guru” where all the information in the book is to push you to a boot camp.  Now…there are good books out there that are trying to sell you something, but they give you a lot of value too.  One of my favorites is Investing in Commercial Real Estate for Dummies by Harris and Conti.  A great book in explaining the basics.  Another of my favorites but will bore you to tears is The Handbook of Commercial Real Estate Investing by John McHan.  The importance of reading up on commercial real estate is to see if you even have a true interest.  If the books above get you excited, you may have commercial real estate in your blood.

3) Take a Real Estate Licensing class. I recommend Kaplan based on my experience.  The licensing class does not mean you have to get a license.  It is a good course to get you familiar with the laws, codes, etc., in your area for not only real estate but property management as well.  I learned a lot in my licensing class.  More than I thought I would.  But I also learned that one of my instructors had no clue about commercial real estate….just residential 

4) Take the Certified Commercial Investment Member (CCIM) courses. This is the boot camp you want to attend.  Yes…it is somewhat expensive and time consuming.  There are four classes and each class lasts five days.  But, if commercial investing is where you want to be, this is the course you want to take.  This will help you analyze projects at depths you had no idea existed.  You will also learn how to do demographic studies, leases, etc.  Plus the networking at these courses are invaluable.  When you finish all the courses, you will have an opportunity to get certifed but you will have to meet some strict and demanding guidelines just to qualify to take the final test.   But…I digress.

5) Find a friend, make a friend. Find someone in your local area that is successful at doing what you want to be doing and follow their lead (also known as modeling).  This is by far the best advice I can give you.  If you have a great interest in commercial real estate, finding someone who is a success at it is the best thing you can do for yourself.  This may take some time and it is uncomfortable at first….but well worth it.  Chances are this person/mentor will be a real estate agent/broker/CCIM investor.

If you do all the above and still want to go to a smooth talking guru…..by all means….but I definitely went full circle starting out with gurus and ending up with the “right way.”  Real experience from real investor is by far the best way to find success in commercial real estate.

Until next time…..rob